Plumbline Report

Victoria · 28 November 2026

Most tracking polls ask different people every night.

So when the numbers move, you cannot tell whether opinion changed or whether a different sort of person picked up the phone. We ask the same panel, every day, and publish both readings side by side.

Join the panel How this is measured

81 days to the Victorian state election 1 panellists enrolled

What we publish

Two readings, always together

The raw reading counts everyone who voted that day. The matched reading counts only the people who voted on both days being compared, so the group is held constant and any movement is a genuine change of mind.

Where the two disagree, the difference is telling you who stopped answering. We show that gap rather than smoothing it away.

What this is not

An opt-in panel, stated plainly

People who choose to record a vote every day are more politically engaged and better educated than the electorate. That is the known cause of the 2019 Australian polling failure, and it does not go away because we mention it.

Every published figure carries its weighting and its unweighted original. Read the method.

The daily commitment

One question, once a day.

It takes about ten seconds. Your answer locks when you save it — there are no same-day edits, because a record you can revise is not a record of what you thought that day.

Missing a day leaves a gap in your line rather than repeating your last answer. We are measuring opinion actively expressed, not opinion assumed to be held.